Predictors of biliary intervention in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal complications of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) include abnormal liver function and acalculous cholecystitis. Cholecystostomy performed during the COVID-19 pandemic reflected a shift toward non-surgical treatment of cholecystitis and increased number of critically ill patients suffering from acalculous cholecystitis. PURPOSE: (1) To determine demographic, clinical, laboratory, and ultrasound features associated with cholecystostomy placement during hospitalization for COVID-19. (2) To develop multivariable logistic regression modeling for likelihood of biliary intervention. METHODS: This retrospective review received institutional review board approval. Informed consent was waived. Between March 2020 and June 2020, patients with confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection admitted to New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYP)/Weill Cornell Medical Center, NYP/Lower Manhattan Hospital, and NYP/Queens were evaluated for inclusion in this study. Inclusion criteria were (1) patient age ≥ 18, (2) confirmed COVID-19 infection by polymerase chain reaction testing of a nasopharyngeal swab, and (3) abdominal ultrasound performed during hospitalization. Exclusion criteria were (1) history of cholecystectomy and (2) biliary intervention performed prior to abdominal ultrasound. Patients were stratified into two groups based on whether they received cholecystostomy during hospitalization. Differences in demographics, medical history, clinical status, medications, laboratory values, and ultrasound findings between the two groups were evaluated using Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test for categorical variables and t test or Wilcoxon-rank sum test for continuous variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model likelihood of biliary intervention. RESULTS: Nine patients underwent cholecystostomy placement and formed the "Intervention Group." 203 patients formed the "No Intervention Group." Liver size and diuretics use during hospitalization were the only variables which were significantly different between the two groups, with p-values of 0.02 and 0.046, respectively. After controlling for diuretics use, the odds of receiving cholecystostomy increased by 30% with every centimeter increase in liver size (p = 0.03). ICU admission approached significance (p = 0.16), as did mechanical ventilation (p = 0.09), septic shock (p = 0.08), serum alkaline phosphatase level (p = 0.16), and portal vein patency (0.14). CONCLUSION: Patients requiring biliary intervention during hospital admission for COVID-19 were likely to harbor liver injury in the form of liver enlargement and require diuretics use.

Predictors of acute deep venous thrombosis in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) is associated with high mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but there remains uncertainty about the benefit of anti-coagulation prophylaxis and how to decide when ultrasound screening is indicated. We aimed to determine parameters predicting which COVID-19 patients are at risk of DVT and to assess the benefit of prophylactic anti-coagulation.Adult hospitalized patients with positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) undergoing venous duplex ultrasound for DVT assessment (n = 451) were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical and laboratory data within 72 hours of ultrasound were collected. Using split sampling and a 10-fold cross-validation, a random forest model was developed to find the most important variables for predicting DVT. Different d-dimer cutoffs were examined for classification of DVT. We also compared the rate of DVT between the patients going and not going under thromboprophylaxis.DVT was found in 65 (14%) of 451 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction positive patients. The random forest model, trained and cross-validated on 2/3 of the original sample (n = 301), had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-0.97) for prediction of DVT in the test set (n = 150), with sensitivity = 93% (95%CI: 68%-99%) and specificity = 82% (95%CI: 75%-88%). The following variables had the highest importance: d-dimer, thromboprophylaxis, systolic blood pressure, admission to ultrasound interval, and platelets. Thromboprophylaxis reduced DVT risk 4-fold from 26% to 6% (P < .001), while anti-coagulation therapy led to hemorrhagic complications in 14 (22%) of 65 patients with DVT including 2 fatal intra-cranial hemorrhages. D-dimer was the most important predictor with area under curve = 0.79 (95%CI: 0.73-0.86) by itself, and a 5000 ng/mL threshold at 7 days postCOVID-19 symptom onset had 75% (95%CI: 53%-90%) sensitivity and 81% (95%CI: 72%-88%) specificity. In comparison with d-dimer alone, the random forest model showed 68% versus 32% specificity at 95% sensitivity, and 44% versus 23% sensitivity at 95% specificity.D-dimer >5000 ng/mL predicts DVT with high accuracy suggesting regular monitoring with d-dimer in the early stages of COVID-19 may be useful. A random forest model improved the prediction of DVT. Thromboprophylaxis reduced DVT in COVID-19 patients and should be considered in all patients. Full anti-coagulation therapy has a risk of life-threatening hemorrhage.

Pulmonary Embolism in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Multicenter Study.

Background Pulmonary embolism (PE) commonly complicates SARS-CoV-2 infection, but incidence and mortality reported in single-center studies, along with risk factors, vary. Purpose To determine the incidence of PE in patients with COVID-19 and its associations with clinical and laboratory parameters. Materials and Methods In this HIPAA-compliant study, electronic medical records were searched retrospectively for demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and outcomes among patients with COVID-19 admitted at four hospitals from March through June 2020. PE found at CT pulmonary angiography and perfusion scintigraphy was correlated with clinical and laboratory parameters. The d-dimer level was used to predict PE, and the obtained threshold was externally validated among 85 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at a fifth hospital. The association between right-sided heart strain and embolic burden was evaluated in patients with PE undergoing echocardiography. Results A total of 413 patients with COVID-19 (mean age, 60 years ± 16 [standard deviation]; age range, 20-98 years; 230 men) were evaluated. PE was diagnosed in 102 (25%; 95% CI: 21, 29) of 413 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who underwent CT pulmonary angiography or perfusion scintigraphy. PE was observed in 21 (29%; 95% CI: 19, 41) of 73 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) versus 81 (24%; 95% CI: 20, 29) of 340 patients who were not in the ICU (P = .37). PE was associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.8; P = .02); smoking (OR, 1.86; 95% CI: 1.0, 3.4; P = .04); and increased d-dimer (P < .001), lactate dehydrogenase (P < .001), ferritin (P = .001), and interleukin-6 (P = .02) levels. Mortality in hospitalized patients was similar between patients with PE and those without PE (14% [13 of 102]; 95% CI: 8, 22] vs 13% [40 of 311]; 95% CI: 9, 17; P = .98), suggesting that diagnosis and treatment of PE were not associated with excess mortality. The d-dimer levels greater than 1600 ng/mL [8.761 nmol/L] helped predict PE with 100% sensitivity and 62% specificity in an external validation cohort. Embolic burden was higher in patients with right-sided heart strain among the patients with PE undergoing echocardiography (P = .03). Conclusion Pulmonary embolism (PE) incidence was 25% in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 suspected of having PE. A d-dimer level greater than 1600 ng/mL [8.761 nmol/L] was sensitive for identification of patients who needed CT pulmonary angiography. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Ketai in this issue.

Multivariate analysis of CT imaging, laboratory, and demographical features for prediction of acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients: a Bi-centric analysis.

PURPOSE: To develop and externally validate a multivariate prediction model for the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) in COVID-19, based on baseline renal perfusion from contrast-enhanced CT together with clinical and laboratory parameters. METHODS: In this retrospective IRB-approved study, we identified COVID-19 patients who had a standard-of-care contrast-enhanced abdominal CT scan within 5 days of their COVID-19 diagnosis at our institution (training set; n = 45, mean age 65 years, M/F 23/22) and at a second institution (validation set; n = 41, mean age 61 years, M/F 22/19). The CT renal perfusion parameter, cortex-to-aorta enhancement index (CAEI), was measured in both sets. A multivariate logistic regression model for predicting AKI was constructed from the training set with stepwise feature selection with CAEI together with demographical and baseline laboratory/clinical data used as input variables. Model performance in the training and validation set was evaluated with ROC analysis. RESULTS: AKI developed in 16 patients (35.6%) of the training set and in 6 patients (14.6%) of the validation set. Baseline CAEI was significantly lower in the patients that ultimately developed AKI (P = 0.003). Logistic regression identified a model combining baseline CAEI, blood urea nitrogen, and gender as most significant predictor of AKI. This model showed excellent diagnostic performance for prediction of AKI in the training set (AUC = 0.89, P < 0.001) and good performance in the validation set (AUC 0.78, P = 0.030). CONCLUSION: Our results show diminished renal perfusion preceding AKI and a promising role of CAEI, combined with laboratory and demographic markers, for prediction of AKI in COVID-19.